Superbowl LV - Buccs vs Chiefs - where the battle will be won!
We asked two NFL experts to examine each team in depth and tell us what each one needs to do in order to win the biggest prize in American sport
Sunday 7th February 2021 is Superbowl LV, Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
With the NFL continuing to see consistent growth in its UK audience[1], there is more reason than ever to pay attention to the biggest matchup of the year. Performers such as U2, Bruce Springsteen and Michael Jackson have lit up half time shows in years gone by, but this year the focus should very much be on the football as the sport's greatest ever Quarterback, Tom Brady, takes on his successor in waiting, Patrick Mahomes, in the first ever ‘home’ superbowl!
Knowledge of the NFL, its teams, players, history and tactics have reached new levels in the UK. We’ve asked 2 UK fans in the know to tell us more about how each team playing this weekend can win the game.
Read on and you can become one of the UK NFL cognoscenti too.
'How the Kansas City Chiefs can win' by Adam Pemberton
More weapons than you can shake a stick at!
To stop the Chiefs you need to do one thing: stop Patrick Mahomes… and Tyreek Hill…
To stop the Chiefs you need to do two things: stop Patrick Mahomes, stop Tyreek Hill… and stop Travis Kelce…
To stop the Chiefs you need to do three things… wait, I’ll start again.
The Chief's biggest asset through the last two seasons has simply been the number of ways that they can beat you. The Catch-22 of NFL defences is that you can’t take away everything your opponent can do; you take away their best things and make their weakest link beat you. That’s a bit of a problem when you are working our whether to double up on Hill or Kelce but then...look over there, the Chiefs have Sammy Watkins, Robinson and Hardman.
And if that’s not enough there’s Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell coming out the backfield.
On top of all of that talent, the man directing it all is Andy Reid who, whilst finally getting over that Super Bowl hump last year, has been one of the top offensive minds in the league for nearly two decades including taking the Eagles to 3 Championship games and 1 Super Bowl - admittedly that year he had Donovan McNabb, an amazing talent, but his supporting cast were Duce Staley and James Thrash; no offense guys, you were great, just not Hill/Kelce great.
So all in all, if this turns into a shootout, KC are bringing the bigger guns.
- History lesson #1: Spagnuolo has Brady’s number!
Speaking of Reid’s trip to the Super Bowl with the Eagles, who was the QB that beat them… oh yeah, Tom Brady. So in the only previous match-up of ‘Reid versus Brady at the big dance’, Reid was victorious.
However, there’s a more interesting and more relevant historical match up to look at. This will be Tom Brady’s 10th Super Bowl. Of the previous 9, he has won 6. The first 2 losses came against the same opponent, 'The New York Football Giants', both close games and both with unforgettable plays from the Giants offense to ultimately win the game. Whilst those moments of brilliance delivered the victories, it was New York’s defense keeping Tom Brady on a leash that put the offense in a position to make those key plays.
And who was the DC on those Giants teams? None other than current Chief's Defensive Co-ordinator, Steve Spagnuolo.
If there’s one man in the league who can claim to be Tom Brady’s Super Bowl kryptonite, it’s Spagnuolo.
- History lesson #2: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers star in ‘Youth vs. Experience’!
A young and hungry team with a Head Coach that has demons to exorcise facing off against a team littered with future Hall of Famers looking to add to their already crowded trophy shelves. Am I talking about this year or am I talking about Super Bowl XXXVII when the Buccs briefly interrupted the run of the first New England dynasty to knock off the Oakland Raiders in a 48-21 blowout? A righteous vengeance of Chucky and his band of young and hungry misfits against a team that included another GOAT in Jerry Rice, as well as Tim Brown and Rich Gannon.
The Raiders had been unstoppable that year, proving that veteran savvy can get you a long way in a young man’s league, but when it came to the final hurdle they fell, and they fell hard. Tampa Bay know better than most that when you are looking for what’s left in the tank come Super Bowl sunday, those extra years are not on your side. Eightenn years ago it was to their benefit, this time it is to KC’s.
It’s a long season and there’s a famous saying around the NFL ‘Father Time is undefeated’; time to hang up those cleats yet, Tom?
Prediction - Chiefs 35 Buccs 24
By Adam Pemberton (Head of Quantitative Research, Cincinnati Bengals Fan and former linebacker for the Farnham Knights and Bristol Aztecs as well as safety for the Lancaster Bombers)
Where to watch Superbowl LV on Sunday night – kick off is 11:30pm (GMT)
- BBC2 from 11pm then BBC1 from 11.25pm (no cost)
- Sky Sports buildup is from 3pm with the game also on Sky One and Sky Sports Mix from 10pm (sky subscription required)
- NFL Game Pass is the NFL’s dedicated channel (subscription required)
'How the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can win' by Adam McWilliams
They have the GOAT
Patrick Mahomes may be breaking records.
Patrick Mahomes may be last year’s Superbowl MVP (wrongly!)
Patrick Mahomes may be unstoppable… at times…
But Tom Brady is Tom Brady!
Tom Brady is the GOAT for a reason.
There hasn’t been a safer pair of hands in the NFL before or since and there’s nobody better on a drive when the game is on the line. He is a serial winner, that’s why he is currently preparing for his tenth Superbowl.
This year has shown that a Tom Brady with weapons (which he never really had in New England) is still able to spread the receptions, keep everyone happy (even Antonio Brown!) and surprise corner backs by targeting the players they least suspect. Just have a chat with Kevin King about passes to Scottie Miller!
If the GOAT can stay protected, if he can read the KC Defense like a book and make good decisions (unlike the second half against Green Bay), the Buccs can navigate their way up to 30pts. Tampa Bay are one of the only teams in the NFL with a similar amount of weapons on Offense to KC.
If they can keep it close, they can win the lot.
- Their defense has a point to prove
Speaking of keeping it close…
In thier last match-up, Tyreek Hill had 350,000 receiving yards in the first quarter, a game in which Tampa Bay DC, Todd Bowles, thought it would be a good idea to leave one of the quickest and most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL, one-on-one with Carlton Davis.
Criminal!
It was an embarrassment (and cost my fantasy team the win…). That embarrassment could and should serve as a reminder for the entire TB defense that they are going to have to come to play. That embarrassment should have been plastered on the walls in the locker room. That embarrassment should make the defensive line of JPP, Devin White and Lavonte David angry. Angry enough to get even, just like they did against the Saints.
The dynamism doesn’t end with Tyreek Hill, it is all across the Kansas City offense, but the aforementioned Bowles will have his work cut out to stop all of the weapons at Andy Reid’s disposal. To help him he has to look back at his time with Miami, an AFC East franchise where every year he came up against one of the greatest ever defensive minds in Bill Belichick. Belichick's New England mantra has always been ‘make someone else beat us’ a philosophy based upon stopping the opposition's best players.
This means Tampa Bay shutting down Kelce and Hill, both of whom are coming off the back of two consecutive 100Yd+1TD games in the Playoffs (the first duo ever to do so).
Bowles must stop these two. Make someone else beat you!
- They nearly did it last time…in the same place…
Week 12 - End of the 1st Quarter – Raymond James Stadium
Kansas City are 17-0 up and cruising. They even have the ball and are charging down the field again!
Tyreek Hill is having a day. Patrick Mahomes is having a day. All is rosy. Things could get ugly for the Buccs. But Tampa Bay make adjustments, strip the ball from Mahomes on yet another long drive and go in 20-7 at half time.
The Kansas City Chiefs are basically unstoppable when they are hot. But they run hot and cold within the same game. At times, it does feel as though the game is too easy for them. Remember how close they were to losing to the Browns when they had looked like they could score at will?
In the 3rd Quarter, Brady makes bad choices and the KC Defense feasts. It gets even easier for KC and the offense stalls. But now in the 4th quarter and it is Tampa Bay’s turn to get hot. It’s Tampa Bay’s turn to rack up the points, it’s Tampa Bay’s turn to get a takeaway…
But it’s not to be, Tampa Tom has left himself too much to do because of that poor 3rd Quarter. The stat line shows that Mahomes threw for a ton. Hill had one of the best games on record and the KC D had multiple takeovers but that isn’t the story of the game. The game was close towards the end… very… Mahomes converted a 3rd and 8 with 1 minute to go to prevent the GOAT from getting back on the field and KC racked up another win… the game ends 27-24.
But this is a different Tampa Bay team that have spent more time together, learned from each other and play their first game of the playoffs at home. COVID will prevent a full house, but Tampa Bay have shown what they can do to teams away from home and this time they will have the backing of their fans. And what happened in the 3 home losses this season?
One was a mauling at the hands of the Saints - they paid them back in the Divisional Round
One was a loss to the Rams – Aaron Rodgers put them to bed before they could say rematch
The last was the loss to the Chiefs – and that debt is just about to be called in…
Prediction - Buccs 30 Chiefs 27
By Adam McWilliams (Teacher, Chicago Bears fan, over 2000 pts scored in NFL.com fantasy this year and still didn’t make the playoffs)
[1] https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/nfl-sky-sports-game-pass-2020-tv-rights-streaming-sunday-viewership-uk